Manual The Home Front: Subnational Conflict in Myanmar, Nigeria and Brazil (World Politics Review Features)

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Subnational Conflict in Myanmar, Nigeria and Brazil
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This study empirically tests what has become a central component of US anti-terrorism policy under the Bush administration: that terrorism is a byproduct of illiberal political and economic systems. Employing a series of statistical analyses on incidents of terrorism in countries from to , the author finds that variables measuring democracy and degree of economic openness are not significant predictors of terrorism.

However, the study does find that experience of state failures is significant, thus providing empirical backing for a small, descriptive body of scholarship linking failed states to terrorism. Part of winning the war on terror is spreading freedom and democracy. George W. Bush, June 1, The Hussein regime, the President explained, was an isolated, economically closed, politically rigid and repressive dictatorship that harbored at least the intent, if not the immediate capacity, to promote terrorism throughout the world by working with Al Qaeda and like-minded movements.

In his statements from to , the President continued to position political and economic freedom as a bulwark against terrorism and frequently lauded the progress towards democracy and free market reforms in Iraq, Afghanistan, Ukraine, Lebanon and the Palestinian Territories as hard evidence supporting what had become the dominant US anti-terrorism policy paradigm marrying political and economic liberalization with United States and world security US Department of State, ; White House, The President was joined in his statements by other key policymakers, foreign policy professionals and experts.

The Arab Development Report published by the United Nations Development Program UNDP concluded that the most significant problems of the Arab World, the most prominent being political violence, were rooted in a lack of freedom and paucity of economic opportunity suffered by its residents. The report advocated policies aimed at political and economic liberalization to solve the entrenched problems of the region which would, by extension, dampen violent conflicts of all types United Nations Development Program, Moreover, concrete policy initiatives within the United States were created to correspond with the foreign policy narrative linking the promotion of political and economic liberalization as a key defense against international terrorist attacks.

Official US government documents and press releases boasted of its revitalized relations with pro-democracy dissidents targeting non-democratic regimes US Department of State, ; White House, And within Iraq itself, the Bush Administration, through the Coalition Provisional Authority, sponsored two rounds of national elections and implemented quite radical programs to privatize Iraqi industry and liberalize Iraqi international trade, capital market, labor, environmental, public use and social welfare policies Klein, But how might international terrorism, democracy and free market economies be logically related to one another?

Few supporters of President Bush's post-September 11th anti-terrorism policy framework have clearly explained the causal mechanisms underlying such a relationship. American Enterprise Institute fellow Joshua Muravchik provides the most concrete explanation of how this relationship might work in an article published in the conservative Weekly Standard , though his theoretical model is explicitly confined to the political dimension of the relationship — the free market components are poorly described bedfellows of political reform — and is only applied to Muslim societies in the Middle East.

Regimes in the region, he notes, have traditionally used heavy doses of repression, replete with appalling human rights abuses, to control their public, and are characterized by a legacy of formidable state-led economic development, largely undisturbed by the wave of neo-liberal economic reform that swept other developing world countries in the s and s, which has produced a very poor standard of living for citizens. These practices have, in turn, created widespread resentment and dissatisfaction among citizens who importantly lack a legal and non-violent means to express their displeasure with the status quo see also Windsor, The undemocratic regimes of the Middle East have furthermore compounded the problem by trying to wield public rage as a political tool through state-run media, state-sponsored public demonstrations and state-controlled political associations.

In these societies, public grievances are not addressed and are therefore allowed to fester to the point that citizens turn to extremist actors for relief. The dictatorial nature of the regime furthermore retards the public virtues of political moderation and compromise, which are necessary ingredients of non-violent political expression Muravchik, Non-partisan, academic studies of the relationship between politically and economically closed societies and terrorism generally do not support the model Muravchik outlines.

In fact, most empirical studies of terrorism tend to demonstrate a positive relationship between political democracy and terrorism. The relationship between terrorism and macroeconomic policies of states — whether they are liberal or state-dominated — has not been empirically analyzed and so much less is known about how promotion of economic freedom might affect terrorism. Schmid explains that an open and free media — a central quality of democratic governance — facilitates the communication objective that all terrorist groups have while the system of legal rights institutionalized in most democracies more effectively shield terrorist suspects and perpetrators from detection, apprehension and prosecution.

Democracies also facilitate the unrestricted and unmonitored movement of people, creation of free associations and acquisition of weapons; all of which assist terrorist groups. Moreover, the legitimacy of democratic government rests ultimately on the public's perception of how well it can protect its citizens, and in a democracy citizens can punish elected officials at the ballot box for failure to protect the public. This quality of public responsiveness makes democracies more willing to negotiate with terrorists. In two statistical studies of the presence of terrorist groups in countries, Eubank and Weinberg , validated these propositions in observing that from World War II to , more terrorist groups were found in democracies than in non-democracies.

The researchers also found that no matter how durable or stable the democracy in question is, it is more likely to have terrorist activity in it than a non-democracy. Compatible results were produced by Piazza in a time-series analysis of Middle Eastern states and to an extent by Li , although his study did find that while specific components of democracy, such as government executive constraints, increased the probability of terrorism, democratic participation reduced it.

Eyerman adds complexity to the question in his empirical study of terrorist acts from to Using a series of statistical analyses, he found that two types of states were most impervious to terrorist attacks, well-established democracies and entrenched dictatorships. However, new non-consolidated democracies were actually more likely to experience terrorism in Eyerman's study, producing a nonlinear relationship between terrorism and degree of democracy and dictatorship.

Addressing the hypothesis that terrorism thrives in economically illiberal societies, Li and Schaub devised a series of pooled time-series multiple regression analysis models using a sample of terrorist incidents in countries between and , and determined that international trade and investment foreign direct and portfolio were negative predictors of terrorism in as much as increased globalization of trade and investment spurs economic development.

These findings are only a partial vindication of the contention that lack of economic freedom promotes terrorism because the investigators only consider one element of free market economic policy — state policies restricting international trade and investment and the global integration of national economies. Li and Schaub, it is important to note, also included a control variable measuring democratic governance, derived from the POLITY IV database, and did not find it to be significant in any of the 16 models run. However, two qualitative academic studies do provide partial support for at least the argument that free markets reduce terrorism.

Kitschelt , in a descriptive study, associates Islamist terrorism with societies that have failed to support the creation of capitalist market systems and have eschewed economic globalization. Although his study is focused on the Middle East, he states that this negative relationship between adoption of capitalism and integration in the world economy and terrorism may also apply to other regions of the world.


Bergensen and Lizardo , using a world systems approach, argue that waves of terrorist activity occur when globalization surges in the countries of the semi-periphery as well as when the dominant hegemon suffers a decline. Democratic governance is negatively related to the incidence of international terrorism. Free market economic policies are negatively related to the incidence of international terrorism. State Department. Patterns of Global Terrorism. Various years.

Freedom House. Annual Freedom in the World Country Scores through Marshall, M. Average Index of Economic Freedom measures from to for each country. Heritage Foundation. Index of Economic Freedom past scores. Gwartney, J. Economic Freedom of the World United Nations Development Program. Human Development Report.

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Atlas of World Politics. Goldstone, J. CIA World Factbook. The dependent variable of the study is the total number of terrorist incidents that occurred in a country from to Patterns is widely regarded as an authoritative source for data on terrorism, but in June of it was criticized for publishing a miscount of the total number of global terrorist events in the edition Krueger and Laitin The miscounted edition has since been corrected and the updated figures are used in this study.

Therefore, each time a single terrorist attack is mentioned in Patterns of Global Terrorism , a terrorist incident is registered for the country where it occurred and the year that it occurred. All incidents are recorded based on the country of occurrence, not the nationality or national legal status of the perpetrator. There are four independent variables that are used to measure political and economic freedom in a country. The first, labeled Democracy FH , is an average from to of two indices created by Freedom House, a non-partisan think tank, which measures the degree to which a country exhibits political freedom, measured as free and fair elections, and civil liberties.

Therefore, a second regime type indicator, labeled Democracy Polity IV , is also included. The third and fourth main independent variables are measures of economic freedom or the degree to which the economic policies of a country are judged to be laissez-faire and free-market-oriented. Economic Freedom Heritage is the Index of Economic Freedom developed by the conservative Heritage Foundation think tank and published on their website. This index measures the degree of economic freedom in a country from to using 10 indicators evaluating government regulation of business, trade, investment, monetary policy, labor and property rights along with measurements of government corruption.

The Index of Economic Freedom ranges from 0, no measurable level of economic freedom, to , perfect economic freedom. A significant limitation of the Index of Economic Freedom is that it only includes measurements of the years —, thus presenting an incomplete picture of the status of economic freedom in the country, and is missing data on key states.

This thematic report outlines the situation of the Palestinian Refugees within official and unofficial camps and settlements in Syria and other countries. This thematic report examines the potential capacity to reach populations in need of humanitarian assistance via the main border crossings to Syria from Turkey. There are 6 main assessment reports which give an overview of the humanitarian situation in Idleb. The profile describes the current situation in Idleb, with regards to the conflict, the subsequent displacement situation and the humanitarian needs, where available per district.

While the physical and humanitarian impacts of explosive weapons, such as mortars, missiles, barrel bombs and IEDs, have been highly visible and documented throughout the conflict in Syria, the unex-ploded remnants of these weapons and landmines have received limited attention but will have long-term implications. In the immediate term, people are killed and maimed, with children making up nearly half of the victims globally.

The intensive use of explosive munitions on high-density urban areas and information limi-tations throughout the conflict means that it will take decades of rigor-ous clearance efforts, as ERW are buried among rubble and debris. Beirut and Sarajevo experienced similar ERW contamination in urban areas; the latter city required years of clearance efforts, although explosive weapons were used at relatively lower levels compared to Syrian cities. Over time, ERW and landmines will also migrate due to flooding or erosion, particularly in soft, sandy soil, thereby further spreading the contamination risk.

The participating agencies reported on funding from 23 institutional donors. All together, the projects targeted around 1. This report gives an overview of the expected impact of the winter season in Syria, neighbouring countries hosting Syrian refugees, and Iraq. This Regional Analysis of the Syria conflict RAS is produced quarterly and seeks to bring together information from all sources in the region to provide analysis of the overall Syria crisis. Part B covers the impact of the crisis on neighbouring countries. Part A II provides detailed analysis per governorate.

Part A I highlights countrywide humanitarian concerns. This map is intended to provide humanitarian actors with a regularly-updated picture of which groups control territory in Syria, in order to facilitate an estimation of the obstacles that may be faced in program operations. Due to the limitations of available data, it is not comprehensive, and should be used to complement, not replace, information from the field. Over 2. At the end of , the project name was changed to Strategic Needs Analysis Project, to reflect the growing need for regional and whole-of-crisis analysis following the declaration of an L3 crisis in Iraq.

The project closed at the end of June This report documents the secondary humanitarian problems and impacts of largescale Ebola outbreak on the different humanitarian sectors, to provide a non-exhaustive plan to help future responders. A large scale Ebola outbreak, in this document, refers to an epidemic with an unprecedented scale, geographical spread and duration.

At the beginning of the crisis, the international community perceived the outbreak as a purely public health emergency. The response was oriented towards the containment of the epidemic and treatment of the sick patients. The initial focus was on providing beds for patients and mobilising health practitioners.

The livelihoods, education or protection needs of the affected communities, indirectly caused by the outbreak, were left unaddressed. The secondary humanitarian problems and impacts of the epidemic were extensive, and threatened the lives and livelihoods of more than 22 million people in the three most affected countries, Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia.

Humanitarian actors failed to activate their surge capacity, or set up emergency funding and coordination structures, as a result of this perception of the crisis. It took time for the humanitarian community to recognise the complexity of the crisis and respond to the secondary impacts on other sectors. On 25 April, local time, an earthquake with of 7. The epicentre is located 81km northwest of Kathmandu, and 68km east from Pokhara. Quake tremors were felt from between 30 seconds and two minutes. As of local time, 25 April, at least people have died, of them in Kathmandu.

At least 2, people have been injured.

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The number of casualties is expected to increase dramatically as information is collected. As of local time, 25 April, at least 18 aftershocks have been felt. Magnitudes of some aftershocks have ranged from 5—6. Hospitals are overwhelmed, and as aftershocks continue, victims are being treated in the streets. Reports suggest people are still trapped under the rubble, and some affected areas have still to be reached. The epicentre is located 77km northwest of Kathmandu, and 68km east from Pokhara. Tremors have also caused damage outside Nepal.

As of 26 April, local time, at least 2, people have died and around 4, more have been injured. The situation is still unclear in remote areas, which remain cut off or hard to access. As of 26 April, aftershocks are still being felt. At least 18 aftershocks occurred on 25 April. Magnitudes aftershocks have ranged from 5—6. As of 27 April, local time, at least 3, people have died and more than 7, have been injured. As of 27 April, aftershocks are still being felt. At least 44 aftershocks have occurred since 25 April. Magnitudes aftershocks have ranged from 4.

The government has reported that a total of 30 districts have been affected in the Western and Central Regions, including Kathmandu Valley districts. There is no total figure of affected population yet WHO has estimated that over 5 million people are affected. The aim of this product is to improve the performance of humanitarian actors in the response of the Nepal earthquake, assist agencies working in the response and encourage positive action by decision makers.

The lessons learned below have been a product of the analysis of main findings and lessons from evaluations of past earthquakes, with similar characteristics and features of Nepal. As of 28 April, local time, at least 5, people have died and more than 8, have been injured.

As of 30 April, local time, at least 5, people have died and more than 11, have been injured. This reduced rainfall delayed rice planting of the first season harvest. An estimated 3 million Indonesians live below the poverty line in areas that were severely impacted by drought between October and December , 1. Curah hujan yang berkurang ini menunda penanaman padi musim panen pertama.

Diperkirakan 3 juta orang Indonesia hidup di bawah garis kemiskinan di daerahdaerah yang terkena dampak kekeringan antara bulan Oktober dan Desember , 1,2 juta di antaranya bergantung pada curah hujan untuk produksi pangan dan mata pencaharian. As the outbreak spread, it was important to find appropriate ways to inform people how they could minimise the risk of catching the disease and what to do if it affected them and their families.

The way messages were developed and disseminated evolved with the epidemic. In Liberia the number of cases spread uncontrollably until September , finally getting to zero in May , before re-emerging twice on a very small scale. This is the first of two reports that ACAPS is producing with the aim of identifying lessons learned and good practice in community-led communication processes.

This report focuses on Liberia and the second covers Sierra Leone. The grey boxes indicate content that relates to communication in emergencies in general and is common to both reports. The report covers the changing behaviours of the affected population, the most effective channels for reaching communities, the most trusted actors for information delivery and the adaptation of messaging to the needs of affected populations. These insights suggest ways to better address communication needs in future outbreaks. Now that the country has been declared Ebola free, communication remains a key aspect of community mobilisation efforts to address remaining Ebola-related issues, such as survivor stigma and complacency towards prevention measures.

This is the second of two reports that ACAPS is producing with the aim of identifying lessons learned and good practice in community-led communication processes. This report focuses on Sierra Leone and the first covers Liberia. It is an initiative of the Ukraine NGO Forum to seek greater understanding of needs across the affected area. The assessment covered the five eastern oblasts in an attempt to provide a more comprehensive overview of the humanitarian situation than was available.

This would help identify the overall priorities and needs by using a consistent approach across all 5 oblasts so that findings could be compared. It did not focus on assessing only the areas known to be worst impacted by the crisis, rather it considered the entire area including badly affected areas 2. The assessment uses three distinct areas and the target population in them as the basis for the analysis, and presents information based on key differences between them:.

This report presents the results of an exercise to collect and analyse the humanitarian needs assessment reports conducted in the Central African Republic CAR since December This monitoring needs assessments MNA exercise does not cover all the information available and required for an analysis of the crisis. It focuses on the assessment of humanitarian needs over a set period: 1 December to end June It therefore does not include assessments made prior to this period, nor works on the CAR and the crisis in the country such as thematic or analytic reports.

The Central African Republic CAR has been in the midst of an escalating emergency since December , when fighting between rival armed groups in the capital, Bangui, left at least 1, people dead. Fighting, led by a northeastern coalition of armed militia known as Seleka, initially broke out in CAR in December After disbanding the Seleka in response to international pressure in September, the short-lived President was eventually removed from office in late while fighting intensified. The humanitarian crisis has worsened significantly in the two months following the violent events on December To date, violence continues to rage in Bangui, where it has so far left 1, people dead and 3, wounded, and has also spread to other parts of the country, mainly to western and northwestern regions.

Various armed groups have targeted not only other combatants, but also civilians based on their Muslim or Christian religion. Against this background, tensions between Christians and Muslims further heightened and inter-civilian fighting, along religious lines, has become widespread. The Crisis Overview Humanitarian Trends and Risks for , outlines the countries considered to be in greatest humanitarian need as we approach the end of Based on our weekly Global Emergency Overview GEO , and three years of data on humanitarian needs across countries, we have identified eleven countries where humanitarian needs are likely to be highest in , as well as seven that merit attention, as they face a potential spike in needs.

This scenario document provides a description of situations that could occur in the coming six to nine months, with their associated humanitarian consequences. The aim is to support strategic planning, create awareness and promote preparedness activities for those responding to this crisis. In October , ACAPS undertook a scoping study to better understand gaps in information and analysis in the context of the asylum-seeker crisis in Europe.

One of the key priorities that emerged from the consultation with humanitarian stakeholders was the need for scenario building, outlining possible developments and anticipated impact on the transit countries over the next six to nine months. At the end of October, three workshops in Athens, Belgrade and Geneva were held to develop and validate these scenarios.

See the methodology section for more information on the scenario building process. According to GDACS, more than 48, people out of the total , people are affected and humanitarian needs are high. More than 10, are reportedly homeless in the capital and largest city Port Vila; more than 33, people are affected in the outlying southernmost islands. This number is in fact likely to be much higher, as more information becomes available.

Unconfirmed reports said that 44 people had died in the northeastern province of Penama, according to OCHA. Only six are confirmed dead. Increased rainfall since the beginning of May has led to a sharp rise in the Shabelle River and flooding. Heavy rainfall, river breakages, and flash floods have displaced 1, people and affected 16, in Beledweyne district, in Hiraan region in south-central Somalia.

There are very divergent opinions on what can be achieved in Istanbul, and a few key actors have chosen to stay away, but most of us are going, oscillating between careful optimism and predictable pessimism. The discussion on how to improve needs assessments has been high on the humanitarian policy agenda for the past years, and some progress has been made. The issue has also been a key element in discussions leading up to the summit.

The grand bargain has been quite an exclusive discussion, with only the heaviest players in the room, and the discussion on needs assessment has been characterised by stark disagreement. It has therefore been fascinating to follow the proceedings from ringside. On the surface, it can be hard to find the root of the disagreement, among the many different opinions and confusion with respect to language, etc.

At the core of the discussion lies a fundamental disagreement over whether assessment and analysis are best done through a centralised or a distributed process. DFID should propose the establishment of an independent body to be responsible for conducting needs assessments in crises. DFID should work with like-minded donors in the build up to and at the Summit to ensure this fundamental problem is addressed. These two visions are not compatible. The Grand Bargain emphasises that we need to pull everybody closer together to be more effective and reduce the number of assessments.

The IDC makes the opposite point, and argues that forcing everybody to work off the same assessment creates problem in with lack of checks and balances. I have seen numerous examples of assessments distorted by groupthink how well did we assess Ebola? These have made us make the wrong decisions and have moved us away from a needs-based assessment. As a sector with scarce resources we cannot afford this.

Most important, this is not a technical problem, but a political problem. As such, it can only be addressed by constructing a system where a biased assessment is confronted with an alternative narrative, not by coming up with a new assessment methodology. The Grand Bargain does have good and constructive elements.

However, with respect to assessments, it is depressing to see that negotiations among the most important and powerful leaders in the humanitarian sector have yielded a result, which will not move us forward, and will most probably will move us backward. Most of the displaced population first sought safety in the town of Toumour, 25—30km west of Bosso town, but have since moved westwards and northwards, fearing further BH attacks.

Others are heading to Kablewa, an official camp that is already nearing capacity. The new arrivals will have severe humanitarian needs after travelling up to km to reach safety, with little food, water or shelter. The capacity of host communities to cope with the newly displaced is low, and humanitarian agencies, while present, are already stretched to meet the needs of the , existing displaced.

Access in Bosso town is limited. Reports suggest most civilians have left, but this is yet to be confirmed and those who remain likely face high protection and humanitarian needs. Newly accessible areas of Borno and Yobe states are revealing extremely high rates of severe acute malnutrition, especially among , IDPs reported to live in 15 camps in Borno state. Information from recent rapid assessments, although limited, raises the possibility of Famine IPC Phase 5 in the worst affected and least accessible areas of Borno.

The Minister of Health has declared a nutrition emergency in Borno state.

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Poor quality and lack of food, inadequate WASH, as well as the insurgency, are among the main causes. Most affected areas are those adjacent to Sambisa Forest and those in northern Borno. Although only limited information is available, there are concerns that conditions among other IDP populations in the area could be similarly dire. Borno, Yobe and Adamawa state are most affected by the Boko Haram insurgency. The northeastern states are hosting the majority of IDPs. The entire resident population of these states 16 million are considered affected by the Boko Haram insurgency. Humanitarian needs are severe and access is limited, particularly in Borno state.

Over 14 million people are affected by conflict in northeast Nigeria and more than 10 million people are in need. A growing number of people are in urgent need of food assistance, with some of the worst affected areas possibly in Famine IPC Phase 5. Alarming rates of acute malnutrition are emerging in Borno and Yobe and deaths as a result of SAM have been reported. Borno state is most affected: 4. In Yobe and northern Adamawa, pockets of insecurity persist: 3. As of 16 July, an estimated 12, people remain displaced after fighting erupted in Juba over 7—11 July. Humanitarian agencies currently have access, but this is not stable as the ceasefire is fragile and the situation remains tense.

Main needs include water, food, health, and protection. An estimated 36,—42, people were initially displaced. The northeastern state of Assam has been particularly hard-hit by monsoon rains and flooding this season. Flooding worsened in Assam on 22 July, when new areas were submerged by the rising waters of the Brahmaputra River and its tributaries.

As of 1 August, official figures show over 1. At least 32 people have died, most since 22 July. Drought has been ongoing since October , but has recently deteriorated dramatically. The drought has now impacted seven departments and municipalities. Over , people as well as 90, hectares of agriculture and over , cattle have been affected.

Newly accessible areas of Borno and Yobe states and areas with active military operations face severely limited access to food. Levels of malnutrition are critical and populations face a substantially increased risk of mortality. On 24 July, high amounts of rainfall between mm at various locations caused heavy flooding in some parts of Senegal. The districts Kaffrine and Kolda central and south Senegal have reportedly been the heaviest affected, with Kaolack and Matam also receiving above average rainfall.

Throughout Kaffrine district some 1, houses have been destroyed and 7, people affected. Because no independent assessment has been carried out yet the actual amount of damage and sectoral needs are not yet known.

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The number of people potentially at risk throughout the flood season is estimated at , Refugees fleeing political turmoil and armed violence in Syria began to arrive in Jordan in As of 19 August , there are , registered Syrian refugees, Most refugees have been in Jordan for years: the largest influx from Syria to Jordan was in and , with , and , refugee arrivals, respectively.

The government declared an outbreak on 10 August, although cholera was first detected on 27 July in Mourou-Fleuve village, Ndjoukou subprefecture of Kemo, located along the Oubangui River, km from the capital Bangui. The outbreak has since spread to Damara subprefecture Ombella Mpoko and to at least four arrondissements in Bangui. Road access to these communities is very limited due to the rainy season. As of July, 1. Most food insecure people are in Garissa, Tana River, and Isiolo counties, in the centre-east.

Such levels of food insecurity are typical for Kenya and do not represent any major deterioration. This briefing note focuses on four counties in the pastoral northwest and northeast Mandera, Marsabit, Turkana, West Pokot , and on two counties in southeast and coastal areas Kilifi, Tana River. Tana River, Marsabit. Global acute malnutrition GAM and severe acute malnutrition SAM rates are reported to be above the emergency threshold in West Pokot and Turkana, where malnutrition rates are often very high. Major flooding in northeastern DPRK, primarily in North Hamgyong province, has affected , people, left , in urgent need of assistance, and displaced , Considerable damage to vital health, water, and transport infrastructure leaves much of the affected population without shelter and vulnerable to waterborne diseases and food insecurity.

Since mid-July over 15, South Sudanese refugees have arrived in the territories of Faradge and Aru in Haut-Uele and Ituri provinces following a resurgence of violence in South Sudan. There is now a total of 27, registered South Sudanese refugees in the territories of Faradge and Aru in Haut-Uele and Ituri provinces. The new arrivals have received little humanitarian assistance. Lack of food, shelter, and medicine has been reported in Ituri. It continued across the northwest of the country. Reported death toll is currently six.

It is expected that flooding will exacerbate pre-existing epidemics such as cholera, dengue fever, and Zika. Over five years of conflict in northeast Nigeria has resulted in critical levels of malnutrition and food insecurity. The military offensive in has resulted in the recapture of many urban areas and increased humanitarian access. While the government of Nigeria and humanitarian community are scaling up, the response remains inadequate. Driven by a lack of food and livelihoods in their places of displacement, many of the displaced are returning home to locations lacking critical infrastructure and essential services.

The ongoing conflict has the potential to continue to cause further displacement and reduce food security. There is an urgent need to ensure a coherent and robust response strategy that takes into account future developments to guide the current scale-up of operations. The scenarios within this document are not attempts to predict the future. Rather they are a description of situations that could occur in the coming nine months, and are designed to highlight the possible impacts, and resulting humanitarian consequences, of the insurgency in northeast Nigeria.

This thematic report is the first in a series of profiles on the worst affected departments in Haiti following Hurricane Matthew.

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It compiles and analyses existing pre-crisis data at the departmental level across a range of sectors and is intended to serve as a reference point for understanding the current humanitarian crisis. Hazard profile: Sud is prone to natural disaster and has limited disaster risk reduction mechanisms. Exposure and vulnerability to hurricanes, floods, droughts, earthquakes are elevated compared even to the rest of Haiti.

Societies and communities: , people live in 18 communes. Settlements are concentrated on the coast, while population density is lower in the mountainous interior. Economy: Over half the population lives in the bottom two quintiles of socio-economic well-being. Key economic activities include agriculture, fishing and animal husbandry. On 7 October, armed violence broke out between forces from Galmudug and Puntland, in Gaalkacyo, the capital of the north-central Mudug region, leaving 11 people killed and dozens injured.

The violence erupted in the outskirts of Gaalkacyo at a site where the Puntland government is building a livestock market. A ceasefire was initially agreed on 9 October, but failed to hold. A new ceasefire was agreed on 19 October. This thematic report is the third in a series of profiles on the worst affected departments in Haiti following Hurricane Matthew.

This thematic report is the second in a series of profiles on the worst affected departments in Haiti following Hurricane Matthew. The Crisis Overview Humanitarian Trends and Risks for , outlines the countries where needs are greatest, and growing, as we approach the end of Based on our weekly Global Emergency Overview GEO , and four years of data on humanitarian needs across countries, we have identified ten countries where humanitarian needs are likely to be highest in , as well as four that merit attention, as they face a potential spike in needs.

We also consider the humanitarian situation in the northern triangle region of Latin America, where the wide-ranging humanitarian impact of pervasive gang violence is chronically underreported. More than , refugees and migrants have reached Italy so far in , around 29, more than in the same period last year. While the vast majority still use Libya as the departure point to Europe, more are using Egypt and Algeria.

The nationality of arrivals is evolving, with fewer Eritreans and more Egyptians. Protection is a primary concern. The estimated number of deaths on the Central Mediterranean route has grown to over 4, people this year, compared to less than 2, at the same point in Many people die on the journey over land to north Africa, but this number is not known. Migrants and refugees also face detention, sexual exploitation, and forced labour. The number of unaccompanied minors arriving in Italy is growing. Food security, food production, nutrition, and livelihoods have been enormously compromised by the conflict.

Displaced populations and host communities in the northeast face particularly severe food insecurity resulting from poor production and loss of livelihoods. A marked increase in the food insecure population has been noted in addition to a loss of livelihoods. The government has declared a pollution red alert. Three border posts along the Myanmar—Bangladesh border were attacked on 9 October by Harakah al-Yaqin, a resurgent group in Rakhine state which has supposed links to the Rohingya. In response, the Myanmar Army has deployed more troops into the northern Rakhine area, mainly in Maungdaw, and has conducted a security operation.

At least people have since been killed in raids and skirmishes. A state of emergency has been declared. As of 22 January, over 76, people have reportedly sought shelter in Senegal since early January. An estimated 3, Gambians have sought safety in Guinea-Bissau since mid-January. Although some people have already begun to return, an estimated 50, Gambians remained in Senegal and Guinea-Bissau as of 24 January. Additionally, an estimated , people are internally displaced.

The Nigerian government has recently engaged in military operations in areas previously held by Boko Haram BH. At least , IDPs out of the , present in these areas are now reachable. This newly gained accessibility is revealing the dire needs of people who had been cut off from all essential services for almost two years. High malnutrition rates and suspicion of famine levels are among the main humanitarian issues.

Poor health and wash conditions exacerbate the needs of the affected population. Protection issues are also widely reported among IDPs. However, even if access has recently improved, in most cases it is limited to the LGA headquarters. At least six LGAs remain completely inaccessible in northern and central Borno, leaving between ,, people cut off from humanitarian aid. Somalia is currently experiencing a drought that started in The whole country is affected, with northeastern areas of Puntland and Somaliland the worst affected.

Humanitarian conditions in the southcentral areas of Bay, Bakool, and Gedo have deteriorated rapidly since November, with poor rainfall affecting crops and livestock. Poor and rural households are atypically market dependent heading into the Jilaal lean season and many require humanitarian assistance to meet basic needs. Fighting intensified in mid-December.

As of mid-January, over deaths have been reported. The majority of these people have reportedly fled to villages in Kasai Oriental and nearby forests. Their needs include food, shelter and NFIs, and protection. So far, the exact number of returnees, and their needs, have not been reported.

Since the beginning of January , heavy seasonal rains have been affecting central and southern provinces in Mozambique. The Mozambican authorities issued an orange alert for the provinces of Maputo, Gaza, Inhambane and Nampula, yet areas of Tete and Sofala provinces have also been affected. The orange alert means that government institutions are planning for an impending disaster. Continued rainfall has been forecasted for the first quarter of Following scenario-building workshops in Brussels and Antakya in January and February, five scenarios were identified:.

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The report outlines triggers that could drive these scenarios, as well as the impact and humanitarian consequences of each scenario. More than 20, people have been killed and 4, women and girls abducted since the conflict began eight years ago. The number of people with protection needs has grown from 2. Needs result from attacks on communities, chronic insecurity, and violations of human rights and international humanitarian law. Many men have been killed, detained, or are otherwise unaccounted for.

2017 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices: Burma

Sexual and gender-based violence is frequent, as vulnerable populations adopt negative coping strategies like transactional sex and the sale and use of illicit drugs. Seventeen out of 21 aimags provinces across Mongolia have been affected by a dzud, a phenomenon characterised by harsh winter conditions that result in extremely high numbers of livestock deaths.

Around , herders are at risk of losing livestock and livelihoods, with the lean season expected to last until May. Bulgan, Khuvsgul, and Zavkhan are among the aimags affected by the dzud. The situation across Mongolia is expected to worsen, as the heaviest snowfalls are expected to coincide with the beginning of the spring birthing season.

Severe drought conditions are rapidly deteriorating food security, nutrition, and health levels across Somalia. A pre-famine warning was declared in January, and there is currently a larger population at risk than in the famine. Below average gu April-June rainfall is predicted in most of the country, with famine conditions likely in localised areas if humanitarian assistance cannot reach all populations in need. Due to continued insecurity, this scenario is a distinct possibility.

Continuous heavy rainfall since February has caused severe flooding in Khashrod and Chakhansur districts in Nimroz province. As of 23 February several homes had been destroyed or swept away by flood waters, and over 20, hectares of arable land had been submerged in flood water. An estimated 3, people have been affected and displaced by flooding in both Chakhansur and Khashrod districts. Affected populations are in dire need of humanitarian assistance. Some of the affected were already vulnerable prior to the flooding.

Many were either internally displaced or returnees from Iran. With 2. An estimated 1,, approximately , households are internally displaced across the country in almost 2, locations, including , people in Adamawa. Tropical Cyclone Enawo, equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale, made landfall over Antalaha district, in the northeastern coast of Madagascar, on 7 March at around am local time.

As of 13 March, at least , people have been directly affected by the cyclone, approximately half of whom are in Antalaha district. At least 50 people have been killed, and wounded, mainly in Analanjirofo and Sava regions. Over , people have been displaced by flooding and storm waters, particularly in Antalaha and Maroantsetra districts. In , at least people were killed in southern Kaduna and 1, in Benue state, where at least 14 of the 23 LGAs were invaded. With the state government unable to provide or maintain camps and relief, IDPs are unable to meet their basic needs.

At least 62, people have been displaced in the three states since Since December , above-average rains have caused flooding and landslides in 24 of the 25 regions of Peru. Over 99, people have suffered losses and over , people have been affected. Piura and Lambayeque in the northwest, and Ica and Arequipa in the southwest are most affected.

Piura, Lambayeque, Lima, Ica and Arequipa are particularly affected by infrastructure damage such as road and bridge collapse, damage to sewage and drainage systems, and health concerns. On 19 February an offensive towards the western part of Mosul was launched, and on 21 February new arrivals were outpacing returns for the first time in six weeks.

Since then camp capacity has been repeatedly reported as severely restricted. Regionally, around , hectares of staple crops, especially maize, have been affected. The remaining southern African mainland countries remain at high risk.

The severity of the impact on regional crop production is yet to be established. The damages caused by the infestation depend on the stage at which the pest attacked the plant. You must accept the terms and conditions. Add comment Cancel. Submit a comment. Comment title. You have entered an invalid code. Submit Cancel. Thank you for submitting a comment on this article. Your comment will be reviewed and published at the journal's discretion. Please check for further notifications by email. Sign in. You could not be signed in.

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